The 2021 San Francisco Giants exceeded all expectations in leading all of Major League Baseball with 107 wins – setting a franchise record in the process – and came within one big swing of taking on the eventual World Series champion Atlanta Braves in the NLCS.
In 2022, the Giants will have a target on their backs as the
reigning division champs, and eyeballs inside and outside the game will be
watching closely to see whether they can repeat their success.
One of the most important pieces of their puzzle last
season, and the constant driving force for the last decade, Buster Posey,
shocked the baseball world in early-November by announcing his retirement after
a resurgent season in which he hit .304 with 18 home runs in just 454 plate
appearances. His absence adds to the litany of decisions that the team brain
trust, led by president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and general manager
Scott Harris, need to make to build off their 2021 surprise and bridge the gap
to their up-and-coming top prospects.
We’ll hear more specifics about what players the team
pursues in the coming weeks and months, but here’s an early look at three moves
the Giants need to make to solidify their roster ahead of Spring Training 2022:
RE-SIGN CURT CASALI
On the face of it, making sure that a 33-year-old journeyman
backup catcher coming off a .663 OPS remains on the roster doesn’t seem to be a
top priority. But you’re not going to flip a switch and replace the exemplary
leadership and 4.9 fWAR of Posey. The Giants have a solid corps of catching
prospects nearing the big leagues, but none of them are quite ready to take the
reins of a championship-caliber team. Joey Bart, the second-overall pick of the
2018 draft and longtime heir-apparent to Posey, will play 2022 at the age of
25. His 2020 audition in the majors didn’t go so well (.233/.288/.320 with no
homers in 111 plate appearances), but he had a good season with AAA Sacramento
in 2021 and should be able to at least hold his own against top-level pitching
in short order. It is widely accepted, however, that his defense isn’t ready to
handle a big-league staff by itself.
Enter Casali. Backing up Posey, Casali was integral to San
Francisco’s run to the NL West title as he stepped in as the backstop for 55
starts – allowing Posey to get needed rest – and was lauded for his work with
pitchers that included catching shutouts in five consecutive starts early in
the season, and then adding to that total as the season went along.
Put Bart on the roster and give him the starting role as he (hopefully)
hits at a league-average clip, and let Casali teach him the finer points of game-calling
as he settles in.
RE-SIGN BRANDON BELT
For much of his first nine seasons in the majors, Brandon
Belt showed promise with an excellent batting eye, good power and outstanding
defense, though it has always felt like he could raise his game to another
level if he didn’t miss so much time with injuries (or have so many extra-base
hits get caught in 421-foot Triples Alley in his home games). His career marks from
his 2011 debut through 2019 added up to a decent .261/.354/.448 with an average
of 19 home runs per 162 games. In reality, a team would be looking for more power
from a first baseman.
And then the Giants changed the configuration of the fences
before 2020. Not coincidentally, Belt turned in his best season yet: a slash line
of .309/.425/.591 with 9 round trippers in his 51 games played, earning MVP
votes for the first time. He followed that up with a great (though, again,
injury-shortened) 2021: .274/.378/.597 with 29 home runs – the most by a Giant
in a single season since Barry Bonds hit 45 in 2004. The fact that he hit so
many blasts in 97 games/just 381 plate appearances makes it seem as though
there’s quite a bit more in the tank. Based on his rate of homers per plate appearance,
if he had equaled his previous career high in playing time (655 PA in 2016) and
kept the same home run rate, he would have hit 49 or 50.
Belt’s absence was felt in the last week of the regular
season and the playoff series against the Los Angeles Dodgers, as the Giants
struggled offensively and saw their season end in heartbreaking fashion.
Now that Posey is hanging up the cleats, keeping Belt is
important for continuity. Replace too many players and you don’t know how it will
sit in the clubhouse, and you’re never sure what you’ll get on the field. Plus,
despite his performance the past two seasons (38 HR, 89 RBI, 165 OPS+ in a combined
148 games), the injury history could mean he’ll come a bit cheaper than if he
was on the field more often.
ACQUIRE TWO ESTABLISHED STARTING PITCHERS
Entering the 2021 campaign, the only sure things in the
starting rotation for the boys at 3rd and King were Kevin Gausman
and Johnny Cueto. After that, the Giants weren’t sure what they’d get out of
retreads Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Wood, Scott Kazmir and Aaron Sanchez along
with promising-but-unproven Logan Webb and a few other minor league
possibilities. That didn’t inspire much confidence, but in the end it worked
out and the starting staff was one of the best in the league.
At this point, the 2022 rotation is in, possibly, a worse
situation. Sure, Webb developed into a frontline starter and the pitching
coaches proved they could rehabilitate careers (see Wood and DeSclafani). But
there are always misses, such as Sanchez and Kazmir. While there may be a
couple handfuls who come to the City (or at least Scottsdale) to try, you can’t
rely on pitchers looking to reclaim their former success as a consistent means
of filling the rotation. Even this past season only Gausman made a full-season
worth of starts (33). DeSclafani came up just short of that at 31, Webb and
Wood started 26 and nine more hurlers – including a few relief pitchers – ended
up firing the first pitch of a game. The reclamation projects almost always are
coming off an injury or ineffectiveness to the point where they had few innings
in the season(s) before, so a staff can’t count on them to stay healthy and
effective the whole season.
Right now, Webb is the likely Opening Day starter. Behind
him, nothing is certain. Gausman, DeSclafani and Wood are all free agents.
Cueto has a team option, and after a middling season mixed with injuries, the
Giants very well might let him go. So, where do you turn? Signing a pair of
established starters would be ideal. Max Scherzer is, obviously, at the top of
anyone’s list. He was traded to the Dodgers at the trade deadline and, at the
age of 37 (turning 38 next July), doesn’t appear to be slowing down (15-4, 2.46
ERA in 2021). He’ll be expensive, but with a lot of money coming off the books
(especially if Cueto’s option is declined), the Giants can take whatever
contract he demands. Who else might they look at? Certainly they’ll try for
someone younger. Carlos Rodon had the best year of his career and will pitch
next season at 29, but has long had injury issues. The Giants’ brass would be
wise to do what they can to re-sign Gausman, who has been their top starter for
two seasons and will turn 31 at the beginning of 2022, and pick up Scherzer as
well as possibly another veteran such as Marcus Stroman or Robbie Ray. Hanging
on to DeSclafani and/or Wood could work too, but the West won’t be won with
three solid starters and a couple of bullpen days every week.
